Technical Analysis
Market Analysis Forex - 22 febraury 2012 While the European Union leadership continues to celebrate the newest Greek bailout deal, investors are suspicious after reading the feasibility report which implies growth returning to Greece in 2013. The deal also failed to address key risks like a Greek ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 21 febraury 2012Euro-area Finance Ministers have arrived at the conclusion of their meeting, agreeing to a second bailout tranche for Greece and paving the way for further discussions on bond write-offs for the indebted nation. The one interesting feature of the recent ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 20 febraury 2012European finance ministers will be meeting in Brussels this afternoon to decide whether to sponsor the second bailout of Greece. The gathering is geared towards approving the next bailout tranche and reassuring already cautious investors that the Eurozone is serious ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 23 january 2012Greece continues to capture headlines as a debt swap deal has still not been reached ahead of the EU Summit scheduled for the end of the weekend. European officials will be meeting today in Brussels to help bring the crisis ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 20 january 2012European banks surged yesterday, leading other industry sectors, as reports that German Commerzbank was halfway to plugging a capital holes led European equities higher for a 4th straight session. The Italian MIB and Spanish IBEX were the market leaders, rising ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 19 january 2012European stocks closed yesterday's session mixed after Fitch came out against Italy yesterday, raising the possibility of a 2-notch downgrade. Germany's Economy Ministry also lowered its growth forecast from 1.0% to 0.7%for 2012 with the World Bank following behind, cutting ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 18 january 2012European stocks continued to show signs of strength and indices were propelled higher on improved data from the German ZEW Economic indicator. Yesterday's major gainers include the German DAX, EuroStoxx 50, and French CAC which were up 1.82%, 1.49%, and ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 17 january 2012European shares moved markedly higher yesterday as the market continued to digest the Euro-zone downgrades. Leaders yesterday included the Italian MIB, Dutch AEX, and German DAX, rising 1.40%, 1.28%, and 1.25% respectively. Although the French bill auction was a success ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 16 january 2012European markets are still reeling from last week's credit downgrades by S&P of both the AAA-rated bastions of France and Austria, with a total of 9 nations being downgraded. This was enough to send equity indices tumbling as the Italian ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 13 january 2012European equities closed mixed yesterday after the ECB and BOE released rate decisions yesterday. Both central banks kept rates steady at 1.00% and 0.50% respectively. Underlying economic health continued to improve, buoyed by the Spanish and Italian debt auctions. The ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 09 january 2012As the currency markets reopened with the Asian overnight session, EURUSD opened below 1.27 this morning, touching a 16-month low of 1.2665 before rebounding slightly. Angela Merkel and Nicholas Sarkozy are meeting today in Berlin with the goal of ironing ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 06 january 2012All hell broke loose yesterday in the Eurozone as mounting fears of a Greek default and weakness in Italian Bank UniCredit dragged markets lower. The Italian MIB was down -3.79% and the Spanish IBEX was down -3.01%. EURUSD also fell ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 05 january 2012Major European equity markets ended the session lower, led by the Italian MIB and Spanish IBEX, down -2.04% and -1.72% respectively. There was major weakness in the Euro as concerns over further debt auctions and difficulty raising capital caused EURUSD ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 04 january 2012European indices extended this week's rally as the DAX rose 1.50% following a better than expected German employment report. Other big gainers included the SMI (up 1.93%), the OMX (up 1.94%), and the Italian MIB (up 1.24%). The FTSE rose ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 03 january 2012As the market reopened for 2012, European markets extended the holiday gains with major indices trading near highs not seen since October. The German DAX was the best performer, up 3% while the Italian MIB, Eurostoxx 50, and the French ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 28 december 2011European futures are mixed as Italian 10-year bonds inch back to 7%, increasing fears that the debt auctions over the next few days will drag on the Eurozone. Most futures remain unchanged after the holidays but the FTSE MIB futures ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 27 december 2011Europe Market Snapshot Italy has scheduled several year-end debt auctions beginning tomorrow and is expected to raise €9bn of 179-day bills and €2.5bn of zero-coupon notes. More auctions are scheduled for longer dated debt Wednesday. The Italian 10-year is trading ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 23 december 2011The markets are awaiting a meeting of the European Systemic Risk Board later this morning in which ECB President Draghi and BoE Governor King are scheduled to speak. European stocks received a boost after UK 3Q11 GDP has been revised ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 22 december 2011Stocks and commodities rallied when the ECB lent Eurozone banks a record amount for 3 years in an effort to avert a liquidity squeeze during the ongoing debt crisis. The ECB awarded €489bn in 1,134-day loans, the most ever in ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 21 december 2011The Dec German IFO business climate rose +0.6 to 107.2, stronger-than-expectations of -0.6 to 106.0. Stocks and EUR/USD also received a boost after Spain sold €5.64bn of 3- and 6-month Treasury bills, more than the maximum target of €4.5bn the ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 20 december 2011ECB President Draghi said in a Financial Times interview that the bank’s sovereign bond purchases can be neither infinite nor eternal. He also poured cold water on any prospect of QE. German FinMin Schaueble said Germany may pay its full ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 19 12 2011The prospect of a quick resolution to the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis looks remote at this stage and the Christmas holiday period further diminishes the chances of imminent action. It also means the data calendar is starting to ease off, ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 16 12 2011Stock markets offered mediocre rallies with many major markets down for the week. Intriguingly standing apart from this crowd has been the recent slide in the Shanghai Composite index, which has tumbled 13.8% since mid-November to March 2009 levels. In ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 15 12 2011EUR/USD slipped to an 11-month low at $1.2965 after data from the Bank of Spain showed that Spanish lenders borrowed an average €98bn from the ECB in Nov, the most in 14 months and a sign that banks are struggling ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 14 12 2011EUR/USD rebounded from a 2-month low when Spain sold €4.94bn of 12- and 18-month T-bills, compared with the maximum target of €4.25bn the Treasury set for the sale. Stocks rallied after the Dec German ZEW survey of economic sentiment unexpectedly ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 13 12 2011Bundesbank President Weidmann dampened speculation the ECB will provide additional measures to stem the debt crisis when he said that while last week's new accord represents "progress," the onus is on governments rather than the ECB to resolve the crisis. ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 12 12 2011The new head of the ECB, Super’Mario Draghi, in a straight-talking news conference after cutting the target rate by another 25 bps to 1.00%, warned that his institution would be guided by the spirit of the EU treaty and that ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 09 12 2011EUR/USD was considerably weaker $1.3319 on concern Eurozone nations may have their credit ratings downgraded if European leaders fail to agree on a plan to curb the debt crisis. Gains in European stocks were limited after the Nov Bank of ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 07 12 2011European stocks took a ‘hit’ after S&P put 15 Eurozone countries on review for possible downgrade, depending on the result of the summit of EU leaders on December 9th. The yields on French and German government debt rose, although stocks ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 05 12 2011It will be a V-E-R-Y exciting week in the Eurozone. First in line will be the ECB rate decision next Thursday. Despite an inflation rate of 3.0%, with all the recent rhetoric and sovereign debt indebtedness, we have changed our ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 30 11 2011Global stock markets rallied for a second day. The main bullish factor was strong demand for an Italian government debt sale where Italy sold €7.5bn of 3-year notes with a 1.5 bid-to-cover ratio, up from a 1.35 bid-to-cover at a ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 29 11 2011EUR/USD and CDSs of European nations fell after Italian Prime Minister Monti said he will propose more austerity measures this week to balance the country's budget by 2013. An unexpected increase in German consumer confidence boosted stocks after the Dec ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 24 11 2011EUR/USD slumped to a 6-week low when the 10-year German bund yield jumped 12 bps to a 3-week high after Germany failed to get bids for 35% of the 10-year bonds offered for sale today, raising concern that Europe's debt ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 23 11 2011Stocks/commodities rallied after Standard and Poor's and Moody's kept the credit rating of the US unchanged after Congress failed to reach a budget agreement, which sets the stage for $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts. Gains in the EUR/USD were ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 16 11 2011Contagion concerns to the European sovereign-debt crisis undercut the €UR and stocks after CDSs of France and Italy rose to records. Mario Monti, Italy's PM-designate, is struggling to get political parties to join his Cabinet as he tries to reassure ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 15 11 2011Italy's 10-year BTP bond rose to a euro-era record 7.43% on concern Italy will join Greece in struggling to form a new government strong enough to implement austerity measures following the resignation of PM Berlusconi. In Greece, the negotiations to ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 14 11 2011Over the coming days markets will be closely following political developments in Italy and looking for positive news on the setting up of the proposed permanent rescue fund. PM Berlusconi could step down soon, with a technocratic national unity government ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 10 11 2011Italy's 10-year BTP bond rose to a euro-era record 7.43% on concern Italy will join Greece in struggling to form a new government strong enough to implement austerity measures following the resignation of PM Berlusconi. In Greece, the negotiations to ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 09 11 2011Stocks received a boost after German exports in Sep unexpectedly climbed for a second month. Sep German exports rose +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.5% m/m. The 10-year Italian bond yield fell after rising to 6.74%, the most since ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 08 11 2011There were few dramatic events to start the week, but past dramas and portends of future ones kept markets in a ‘cautious’ mood. Equity markets were modestly weaker, apart from Italy, which posted an ‘against the grain’ +1.3%. As the ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 03 11 2011EURUSDDuring the night, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy stressed what is at stake with the Greek referendum. On December 4th, Greek citizens will have to decide if they agree to honour their past commitments and remain ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 02 11 2011USDJPYThe mood of Asian investors remained pessimistic during the night session. The prospect of a Greek referendum has heightened the degree of systemic risk and has increased recession expectations. In this context, market participants are stepping back: the Nikkei extended ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 17 10 2011The G-20 Finance Ministers’ meeting will be in focus this week. We are not expecting too much from this, but it may give us a reasonable guide as to how the all-important G-20 leaders’ summit in Cannes in early November ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 27 09 2011The NOK and the SEK ranked at the top of our scorecard this week despite the massive deterioration in market risk sentiment ‘recently’. The ranking highlights the superior economic and credit fundamentals as well as the valuation of the two. ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 26 09 2011REM may ”feel fine” after their recent break-up, but the global economy most certainly would not if the Eurozone were to split. Politicians have been trying to sound more confident that no-one will leave the Eurozone, but markets remain ‘sceptical’. ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 21 09 2011Talk of the SEK and NOK becoming new safe-haven currencies rapidly receded as stop losses drove EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK higher. The more normal pattern of business cycle sensitivity now appears to be working against both. However, they should clearly be ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 14 09 2011Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan up +0.95%, China -1.12%, Australia +0.85%, India -0.21%. Mounting concern the European debt crisis will spread and slow the global economy and demand for Asian exports is the biggest negative factor undercutting Asian ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 12 09 2011News flow is rather thin on the ground over coming days, though in the US, Fed arch hawk Richard Fisher will be speaking twice compared to Bullard’s (non-voter) once, and this plethora of hawkishness may temper optimism about imminent QE ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 08 09 2011Global stocks traded higher with the EuroStoxx 50 up +1.83% (FTSE-100+1.79%; DAX+2.94%; CAC-40+2.34%: IBEX+2.11%). EUR/USD rose after Germany's top court rejected legal challenges to Germany's participation in European rescue funds. European stocks rose after German July IP rose +4.0% m/m ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 01 09 2011After a recent run toward $1.4550, EUR/USD slipped toward $1.44 (spot ~$1.4450), as Italy’s EU data (Italian retail sales June -0.2%, cons: 0.1%; EU business and consumer confidence) were generally to the low side of expectations, and though Italy did ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 31 08 2011Asian stocks today closed mixed with Japan up +1.16%, China -0.39%, Australia +0.14%, South Korea +0.79%, India +1.59%. Asian stocks received a boost after US personal spending rose more-than-expected, which may keep demand strong for Asian exports. Japanese stocks closed ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 30 08 2011July personal incomes rose 0.3%, as expected. Nominal spending jumped 0.8%, above the consensus, 0.5%. With the headline deflator up 0.3%, real spending rose a robust 0.5%, the best performance since December 2009. The core deflator rose 0.2% as expected. ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 25 08 2011US stocks treading water ahead of Friday’s FOMC’ gathering’ with DJIA +0.86% at 11,269, the S&P Index -0.29% at 1,160.66. and the Nasdaq Composite Index -0.17% to 2,441.98. Brent Crude hovers near $109.34/bbl as supply disruptions balanced against demand worries. ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 24 08 2011It took a magnitude 5.8 earthquake centred in Virginia rattling much of the East Coast to curb market enthusiasm if only just momentarily. Equity markets roared their approval for the better-than-expected/better-than-feared readings on Chinese and European sentiment indices supporting an ... |
Market Analysis Forex - 23 08 2011Gold has soared to a record as a shaky global economic outlook spurred safe-haven buying, while Brent crude slid more than $3.00 on hopes Libya will resume oil production soon as a six-month conflict in the country appeared close to ... |
The Week Ahead - 22 - 27 agossto 2011With markets firmly back in “risk-off” mode, attention will focus on policymakers’ reactions, be they politicians or central bankers. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will give his headline speech at the Jackson Hole conference next Friday with financial markets listening as ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 18 08 2011In June, for only the second time since January 2009, foreign investors were net sellers of Canadian securities (-C$3.5bn), in large part this was due to heavy maturities, and foreign investors did snap up over C$15bn of product in May. ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 10 08 2011JPY: With the Obon holiday setting in, there has been a general expectation the exporter offer is disappearing, which is compounding JPY’s safe haven bid. USD/JPY fell from 77.85 to 77.00/05, below the pre-intervention levels seen last week. In other ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 08 08 2011I began compiling the statistics/data needed to get an idea how the fundamentals MIGHT impact the financial markets after ALL the political wrangling on both sides of the Pond and all of a sudden…WHAM!! Late Friday night, S&P downgraded the ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 02 08 2011The US ISM manufacturing index has undershot market expectations, dropping to 50.9 from 55.3 (consensus 54.5). We had suspected there would be downside risk given the fact the ISM rose last month when all the regional PMIs pointed to a ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 27 07 2011Reuters/FT Deutschland: ECB in state of very ‘strong vigilance’ – Noyer...Just what the doctor ordered (not!) as the relief on the Greece package unravels in double quick time. But a rate hike in August does not look to be on ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 26 07 2011The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) took 2 steps today to address the deteriorating liquidity and price action in the Turkish foreign exchange market – neither of which is likely to provide any sustainable rebound for the TRY, in our ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 25 07 2011EURUSDWe are entering a crucial week for the US dollar, as congressmen will attempt to reach a last-minute deal with President Obama to lift the US debt ceiling. The August 2 deadline is approaching dangerously and, for each day elapsed, ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 21 07 2011July’s sharper-than-expected drop in Eurozone consumer confidence suggests that the recent intensification of the sovereign debt problems has not left consumers untouched. According to a “flash estimate” by the European Commission, consumer confidence in the 17-country region fell from a ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 20 07 2011The BoC has left its policy rate unchanged at 1.00%, but the tome of the statement perhaps suggests they are moving towards a rate hike. They stated that “to the extent that the expansion continues and the current material excess ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 19 07 2011The market is, as usual, focusing on the sharp rise in the claimant count unemployed, but it really shouldn't. This figure has been distorted upwards by changes in the UK benefits structure that has led to more people being 'moved' ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 28 06 2011The EURUSD rose sharply from 1.4100 to climb as high as 1.4328 overnight. Breaking news that Greek bondholders including European banks may be willing to rollover and extend the maturities of the holdings was positive news for equities, commodities and ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 27 06 2011June’s sharp fall in the Eurozone flash composite PMI suggests that the soft patch has also arrived in continental Europe. The decline in the headline private-sector activity index, from 55.8 to 53.6 was much larger-than-expected (consensus: 55.2) and left it ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 24 06 2011June’s sharp fall in the Eurozone flash composite PMI suggests that the soft patch has also arrived in continental Europe. The decline in the headline private-sector activity index, from 55.8 to 53.6 was much larger-than-expected (consensus: 55.2) and left it ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 23 06 2011As expected, the Norges Bank today left the deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% . What was more surprising to us was the fact that in spite of numerous justifications they could have used to push back on market expectations for ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 22 06 2011UK fiscal numbers for May are pretty close to expectations. The government’s favoured measure – public sector net borrowing excluding financial interventions – came in at £17.4bn, down from £18.27bn for the same period last year. The cumulative for the ... |
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Forex - 21 06 2011The statement from the Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers released today makes it clear that the release of the next tranche of loan support for Greece is conditional on the Greek parliament approving the latest round of austerity measures. This ... |
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Forex - 17 06 2011The session had all the earmarks of another harr owing day of risk aversion. Then something unexpected broke out … calm. Equity markets in Europe ended lower, but well off their lows. The S&P 500, in positive territory much of ... |
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Forex - 16 06 2011May consumer prices in the US came in higher than the consensus had beenexpecting, with, as we thought likely, with less of a drag from falling petrol prices than had been expected. Overall energy prices fell only 1.0% m/m, erasing ... |
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Forex - 15 06 2011EUR-USDThe EURUSD forex pair on Tuesday rose for a second straight day buoyed by an increase in risk appetite, however there are still concerns about Greece and peripheral countries and gains can be easily lost. Encouraging economic data from China ... |
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Forex - 14 06 2011Forthcoming data: Watch for US retail sales, factor sector surveys (Empire, Philly), CA manufacturing shipments, a speech by BoC Gov Carney (June 15th), Tuesday’s ECOFIN meeting, UK, EU and Swedish (notably in focus after the production numbers) CPI, NZ retail ... |
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Forex - 13 06 2011After a series of disappointing US data releases, the market focus will be on whether the “soft patch” is intensifying. We put the recent weakness down to the rapid rise in energy costs, which has hurt household spending power and ... |
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Forex - 10 06 2011The risk off tone that wafted through markets post-Bernanke remained the key theme through the overnight session, though markets were off their lows by the close. That still left European stocks down more than 0.5% across the board. US markets ... |
Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Forex - 09 06 2011Turkish bonds strengthened after weaker-than-expected April industrial output data gave credence to the central bank's view that demand is cooling, which could mean rate hikes come later rather than sooner. The benchmark 10-year d yield fell 5 bps to 8.90%. ... |
Technical Analysis Forex - 08 02 2011EURUSDEuro have fallen to a two-week low on Monday evening and found support at the 1.3505 below the previous support of the1.3540 creating a “bear trap” as prices moved fast above the two week low. The movement to lower levels ... |
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