| Market Analysis Forex - 16 12 2011 |
 Stock markets offered mediocre rallies with many major markets down for the week. Intriguingly standing apart from this crowd has been the recent slide in the Shanghai Composite index, which has tumbled 13.8% since mid-November to March 2009 levels. In FX, the market also reflected a lackluster risk-positive tone. The unenthusiastic rallies reflected the underlying sense of unease regarding the global economic outlook and global financial stability. The USD rally earlier this week led to DXY piercing resistance at 79.84. That upswing stalled overnight, though DXY remains above 80. EUR/USD managed to retake $1.3000, but its grip hardly seems secure. AUD/USD was unable to reclaim parity.The US numbers highlight that while downside risks proliferate in many regions, the US economy might be showing some spark. Jobless claims (to Dec 10th) tumbled to 366,000 – a 3-year low, and the reading looks clean, though we remain suspicious given the seasonal volatility. That said, the December regional Fed manufacturing numbers looked quite good. These are hopeful signs on the US jobs front and ahead of the US Dec ISM data, which might kick-off 2012 with some flair. The upcoming US November CPI data won’t likely to garner much attention, (cons: 3.5% y/y, core: 2.1% y/y). |
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