Market Analysis Forex - 23 january 2012

technical analysis logoGreece continues to capture headlines as a debt swap deal has still not been reached ahead of the EU Summit scheduled for the end of the weekend.  European officials will be meeting today in Brussels to help bring the crisis to a resolution while discussing more comprehensive budget rules and mechanisms to assist troubled EU States.  After rising for the first week in 7 on the back of the S&P downgrades, the Euro has opened lower, with EURUSD trading now at 1.2894, retracing slightly from its low today of 1.2874.  European equities ended last week significantly higher, even after losses on Friday with Swiss SMI falling -1.16% and the Spanish IBEX -0.49% lower.  UK data continues to disappoint as weaker than expected retail and industrial figures opens the door for further Quantitative Easing from the Bank of England next month.  GBPUSD is trading lower, down to 1.5550.  
Asian Indices are mixed this morning as no definitive debt deal has been reached in Greece and stronger than expected U.S. housing data provides evidence of a turnaround.  The Nikkei is higher, edging up 0.23% while the Australian ASX 200 is lower by -0.22%.  Australian input prices continue to fall, raising the possibility of further rate cuts in the coming month as inflation decelerates to its slowest pace since the height of the financial crisis.  The Aussie-dollar has moved slightly higher against the USD since the release of the Australian PPI figures, up 0.0748% to 1.0492.  Lastly, Happy Chinese New Year!  Markets will be closed in China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan today.
After last week's improved headline data in both employment and housing, U.S. markets ended mixed with the Dow ticking higher 0.76% while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were mostly unchanged on light volume.  Existing home sales rose 5.0% month-over-month to the highest volume since January 2011.  According to data from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, investors increased long positions in the USD and the market is net long USD against most majors with the exceptions including AUD, NZD, and JPY.  Energy commodities continue to tumble, as WTI crude dives back below $98 per barrel to $97.89.  Natural gas has also given up -3.41% to settle at $2.263/MMbtu, the lowest since 2002.  The major upcoming events are today's 3-month bill auction and Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

 


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