| Technical Analysis Technical Analysis Forex - 21 06 2011 |
 The statement from the Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers released today makes it clear that the release of the next tranche of loan support for Greece is conditional on the Greek parliament approving the latest round of austerity measures. This introduces uncertainty in the shape of Greek internal politics, particularly the outcome of the Greek confidence vote tomorrow and the budget vote scheduled for June 28th. In the event that sufficient arms are twisted to ensure a positive vote in both instances, this would only provide short–term relief for the financial markets. In the longer term, such compromises are unlikely to resolve Greece’s unsustainable debt position. The fact is that austerity means further economic contraction and this fiscal ‘death spiral’ cannot generate the primary budget surplus required to put the debt /GDP ratio(150%) back onto a sustainable track. In addition, the Greek political situation is uncertain and compliance with EU/IMF policies is unlikely given the Greek government’s poor track record of managing its finances. |
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